Metals, Iran, & the RMB-USD Peg
Long Metals is Short Chinese Exports
The industrial metals (notably copper & silver) surging by the day doom the sustainability of China's industries: for ever incremental bump in commodity prices, Chinese industrial consumers of these metal face far more upside in speculating or hoarding metals instead of consuming them to make their industrial or consumer goods.
Export Bans Means It Hurts
Whenever a country bans a commodity export, it means that the sovereign fiat must intervene to subsidize the consumption of that commodity: in China's case, an export ban of silver suggests that silver end-users require subsidy to protect their margins: the buyers of these silver-using goods simply can not absorb the required price-hikes ("elasticity" in econo-wonk cant) to pass-on the speculative demand impose on the silver market.
It All Comes Down to the RMB-USD Peg
Just as underpriced Burmese tin, Zambian copper, and other "non-aligned" or "neo-Soviet" commodity producers export to China at below-market prices, Iran subsidizes China's petrochemical and fuels industry:
The Chinese Peg Can't Survive Iranian Regime Change
The reason Xi's regime proves so brittle, right now, with attendant rumors of coup attempts originates from the inability of China's economy to survive without importing metals, minerals, and fossil fuels at below-market prices.
What Ends the Metals Bull?
The metals bull will not survive a devalued dollar in respect to the USD-RMB peg: with the dollar nearly 100% OVERVALUED against the RMB, every single speculator in China would receive a margin-call from his (likely) levered long positions in metals.
It seems counter-intuitive that weakening the dollar relative to the RMB would eliminate the speculative buying frenzy in metals, but if one considers that gold has nearly doubled in a year, if the RMB were allowed to appreciate as some estimate it should, e.g. from roughly the 6-7 RMB to USD range to 3-4 RMB to USD range, metal speculators within China would be flat on their speculation - and that's before accounting for margin rates!
Where Does the Capital Go?
Bessent very well understands that he must discipline and re-direct this speculative dollar-skeptic, US-skeptic capital into capital investment to re-industrialize the US. That's his mission, and it entirely underpins the future value of the US dollar and American employment and ALL American asset values - everything depends on getting the "panic" and "inflation trade" into American capital assets.
Iran is Bessent's Gettysburg
Just as gold peaked right before the Union victory at Gettysburg, it stands to reason that gold would peak just before an anticipated victory over Iran and an end to China's strategic oil subsidy and compelling Xi's capitulation or ouster.