Putin-Trump "Swap" : Kaliningrad for Caracas

Every man has his price, and Lavrov wore it on his chest, in Alaska.

EU Stubbornness and Russian Hawks

Between the stubbornness of the EU and the Russian Hawks, both Putin and Trump find it impossible to force a peace-deal in Ukraine.

Problem: Chinese Baltic Intervention too Expensive for Putin

Without an all-out Chinese invasion of Ukraine, Russia can not fulfill her publicly-declared annexation demands of the Ukrainian regions east of the Dnieper.

An all-out Chinese invasion would come at a catastrophically-high price: already, Russia loses money on her trade with China, and a Chinese-manned front would reduce Russia to a slave-state of China.

Realistically, this would fail, as the Russian people, already chafing, would revolt - for an example of a "vassal state" revolting against her Soviet master, see the DDR (East German) 1953 Uprising.

That said, if Putin finds himself truly cornered by the West, he has nothing to lose to give China permission to take-over Russia's economy, in exchange for an all-out European offensive.

A Chinese offensive in Eastern Europe would collapse markets and provides Putin a credible "Mutually Assured Destruction" option.

Better Bargain: Swap Kaliningrad Corridor for Ukraine Concessions

However, there's a better way: give a Kaliningrad a corridor.

By swapping his publicly-stated objectives in Ukraine for a far more valuable corridor to Kaliningrad, Putin wins a very stabilizing and legitimizing victory in Europe. Indeed, even ardent Putin critics would have to acknowledge the success of his cold-blooded realpolitik: Putin achieved the unthinkable - reconnecting Kaliningrad with the Motherland, and without nuclear conflict.

With a Kaliningrad corridor established, Russia gains a year-round ice-free port in the Baltics, and the Russian "Deep State" values a "warm-water port" in the Baltics more than any amount of additional land East of the Dnieper.

This diplomacy comes at a price, though: Putin has to transfer the personal security guarantee from Russia to the US for the Maduro regime.

Trump Wants His Cut: Caracas - PDVSA Debt and Mineral Access

While the bidding for the PDVSA Holdings CITGO assets continues, the US needs access to Venezuelan mineral reserves and oil trade. Maduro has to become pro-American, and where Venezuela goes, the currently Leftist, anti-American Colombia surely follows.

Furthermore, a public resolution by Caracas to recognize its PDVSA bonds would positively impact sovereign risk across Latin and South America: the Trump administration, having now demonstrated this valuable inducement to Maduro's people (provided the Russians go along with the "personal security guarantee" for Maduro).

It stands to reason that Argentinian sovereigns rally in sympathy with PDVSA bonds, and that only gives Maduro and his "associates" even further incentive to join forces with Trump - again, with the blessing of Putin and a total personal security guarantee.

EU - Reworking NATO Behind the Scenes

The Dutch government declaring "Antifa" a terrorist group before Trump formally did so proves that the smart Europeans want to align themselves with Trump before Maduro formally re-aligns with the United States: to win access to mineral reserves requires a total political commitment, coordinating resources to combat residual Leftist agitators within the West.

Thus, when Trump declares that the US will not intervene in a "Baltic Crisis" and demands talks, the EU pole, which had triumphed in the recent economic accord with its impositions on American trade, now finds itself subordinated to the United States, thanks to the master-stroke by Trump's foreign policy team.

Using Russia's Conflict to Subordinate Europe

Were Trump to not cynically use a Baltic conflict as an opportunity to subordinate Europe, American companies would find themselves increasingly hostage to European demands, and the "Globalist Multilateralism" would have regained primacy in time for the next American election - disaster.

Brazil - the Final Trump Objective

Despite the upcoming victory in Venezuela and peace deal in Ukraine, thanks to a "Baltic Crisis" resolved by a Putin-Trump rapprochement, Brazil remains the stubborn outlier in the Western hemisphere: China requires a concession from Trump to avert a crisis, but with the EU humbled by the Baltic "War", the terms should not prove as onerous as they would, today, where the EU and China likely collaborate against American dominance over Brazil.