Wherefore the Copper Bid? The Post-AI Commodity Trade
AI has become so good that the market already priced-in what agents and robots and drones need, not what superfluous humans need.
Metals - Demand for What, Exactly?
It remains curious that metal demand remains elevated in the market: the global economy remains oversupplied by every capacity measure, be it industrial or commercial.
Sure, the ongoing and escalating wars do create episodic shortages, e.g. diesel and aviation fuel, and while that surely extends to semiconductors, once China formalizes her Taiwan blockade, it does not explain the persistent and across the board commodity tightness, especially in metals.
Two World Wars Over Robots, Already
IF you consider the combustion engine a "robot" and oil its "food", then indeed, both World War I and World War II were fought over control, in part, of this "robot food" - oil.
Likewise, today, the "robot essentials" expand to metals, be they base or "rare earth", as the semiconductors and motors required to control and actuate human-replacements require extensive metals.
Proof: Copper Crossed $5/lb on AI Headlines
Copper crossed into all-new highs of $5/lb in May, 2024 - why?
AI headlines: specifically, the recent proven success of OpenAI's GPT-4o multimodal model: GPT-4o could process images, video, and voice - thus making live robotics viable. Figure AI used GPT-4o for its initial line of robots.
It was not data centers that drove copper over $5/lb.
IT was robots.
Global Elite Long-Ago Gave-Up on Mankind
There is no need to "human-driven" demand, per se: a declining global population does not impose commodity deflation, if robots and AI demand an ever greater share of resources. Thus, the "commodity masters" not only preserve but in fact grow their wealth, as the out-sized demand for robotics and AI exponentially increase demand for their products.
Just as men have fought wars for spice, coal, and oil, now, it extends, formally, to the metals and facilities to create, operate, and maintain AI, drones, and robots.