Trump & Putin: Accessing Narco Capital in Exchange for Ukraine Peace
It turns out that the main "deal" desired from Trump's side in the Ukraine negotiation isn't territory in Europe: it's narco capital that currently resides within the "Soviet orbit" and outside beleaguered American capital markets.
Cuba - Crimea of the Caribbean
In Russian eyes, Cuba is their "Crimea of the Caribbean": to lose Cuba to revolution would prove incredibly destabilizing to Putin's credibility.
To force a revolution in Cuba merely requires an energy embargo from Venezuelan (and possibly Colombian) oil. Cuba's already on the ropes, as-is.
Biden - Narco-capital Firewalls
Biden added firewalls to keep narco wealth within the "Soviet orbit", knowing full-well that Trump would immediately reach for narco money as soon as he came to power: with China yanking-away the piggy-bank for American ponzi slop, his only recourse would be pivoting to narco surpluses for financing American debts.
Narco Inflows & Narco Resource Plays
Narco capital isn't just about surpluses from selling cocaine and other drugs: it's also about actual project development in partnership with the leading narco organizations in Latin America.
For example, in Venezuela and much of Latin America, narcos run mines: gold, silver, base metals, bulk - doesn't matter: narcos recycle their surpluses into the resource industry in Latin America. This goes across all industries, not just mining, too.
If one considers the case of Gold Reserve's Siembra Minera project in Venezuela, for example, it can scale only so much without multinational IP and capital.
Free-flowing Narco Capital & Capitalizing Narco Resources Depends on Putin
Putin blessing Trump's "narco pivot" in the Caribbean proves essential for a smooth integration of narco surpluses and assets into the broader American economy: having been insulated by Biden concessions to pro-Soviet regimes in Latin America (Biden made it harder for a future American admin to GET into these narco flows & deals), Trump uses strikes and menaces with his military, mercenaries, and spies to undermine Soviet Latin America, up to and including collapsing Cuba, should a resolution of Ukraine and narco inflows go sideways.
Without Putin's access to FSB intelligence, tens of billions of dollars remain outside Trump's hands, sequestered in private banks and esoteric account structures.
Worst-Case: Venezuela Falls & Cuban Revolution
Should Putin hold firm on Maduro and not make concessions with his narco fiefdoms, Trump finds himself compelled to squeeze Maduro until he begins intercepting oil exports to Cuba. Once Cuba faces an energy embargo from Venezuela (and Colombia, if necessary), then Russia risks losing her "Crimea of the Pacific".
This seems vanishingly unlikely: Americans love too much their narco cash, and Putin can't afford the prestige loss from a Cuban revolution.